With thanks to ODAC at the New Economics Foundation.... 
A new IMF working paper was released this week considering the economic impact of a number of scenarios around stagnating or declining oil production. The report Oil and the World Economy: Some Possible Futures follows on from  The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology released earlier in 2012, which found that geological modelling of oil production proved much more accurate than economic modelling.  There are interesting scenarios ranging from mildly negative effects on growth to the "downright implausible."
 


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